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Profiting From the Failing Auto Industry

I have followed the economic cycles of our auto industry with some interest. Fifty years ago, the American auto industry was the pinnacle of success. Now, the remnants of a once mighty industry are being torn apart…like vultures tearing apart a dead animal carcass.

So who wins in all this?

Of course the lawyers do… (please insert your canned lawyer joke here).

In addition to the lawyers, there is a small group of companies profiting from the turmoil of the auto industry. I’ll tell you who they are in a moment.

First, let’s look at our favorite Dow Jones Industrial Average component… General Motors (GM).

With typical automotive flair, GM keeps the world on a roll of news. One moment they are threatening bankruptcy. The next they reach agreements with debt holders. Today, it seems that bankruptcy is a certainty. The stock chart looks like the scribbles of a two-year-old with an indelible marker.

Up one moment, down the next.

One of GM’s biggest competitors – Chrysler – is already going bankrupt. Ford, the sole survivor of the big three, seems to have escaped the turmoil. You already know how highly I think of Ford. You can find my most recent article about them here, “Time to Buy a Ford…Are You Crazy?”

To understand what’s really going on, we need to look at recent news about car dealerships.

Chrysler is cutting about 800 dealerships. GM is in the process of cutting nearly 2,000 dealers. Ford has already done the dirty work. In recent years, they have cut more than 600 merchants. Rumors are they have another 100 or more in their sights.

Dealerships are closed across the country.

But the franchise problems aren’t limited to the big name brands.

Other smaller car dealers are also struggling and closing. Just take a quick drive through some of the older car areas in your city. The sight is scary. It’s like a ghost town. Vacant lots, boarded up buildings…weeds.

Why are the smaller merchants closing?

For the smaller merchants, it’s all about credit. Because of the credit crunch, getting a car loan is almost impossible. If no one can get a loan, no one can buy a car. Add to that housing concerns, foreclosures and job losses and you have a perfect storm hitting the smaller businesses.

So, who is the winner in all this?

It’s the car service companies.

Take a look Monro Muffler Brake (MNRO). The company runs 720 stores focused on providing services for cars. They do a whole litany of things. Everything from break down repair to air conditioning services.

Many car owners used to have their vehicles serviced by their dealer…

In the next few months, as thousands of dealers close up shop, customers will be looking for new places to take their car. And Monro is sure to pick up some of them.

Trust me, it won’t happen all at once. The closures will take time. But eventually the migration will happen. Customers will slowly find their way to service companies. And those companies will see improved revenue growth and, of course, higher margins.

Monro has been running a lot lately. The stock is nearing its 52-week high of $29.40. I take it as a great sign that the stock is showing strength in an otherwise weak economic environment. All key moving averages point to a continued move higher. Consider Monro for your portfolio. Pick it up on withdrawals…but don’t wait too long. I think this stock trades over $30 in no time.

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