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Is Web 2.0 a Bubble

Everyone is talking about Web 2.0 as the next big thing in IT. Blogging, Photo sharing, Podcasting, tagging, social networking, online dating, RSS feeds, Rich web applications – We see more and more such applications mushrooming from the web every day.

While Web 2.o Summit was in progress on November 7, 2006 with all the web heavyweights discussing Web 2.0 trends, the blogosphere, our new source of educated thought, was buzzing with voices of caution on a Web 2.0 bubble. Various reasons have been provided.

According to a research team at VentureOne, 455 million of 1.63 Billion VC funding so far (through the third quarter of 2006) has gone to 79 web2.0 companies. Free money on a mere buzz word called ‘Web 2.0’.

Web2.0 websites are popping up like mushrooms in a wild wild web. They all look the same.

Not every one of these startups would survive and VCs would have to pull out before the bubble burst like .com in 2000.

It is ironic that we share and voice opinions about the demise of web2.0 on blogs and follow them with periodic RSS feeds, which are the basis of the collaborative spirit of Web 2.o.

While we’re at it, let’s take a quick look at some of the site 2.o:

At http://www.zillow.com, you can search for a location and have a virtual tour of the houses and locations you may want to buy. You can then contact the rental agency if you like one for a personal visit, or http://www.wikimapia.org where you can see your home from 15000 feet up and locate the nearest grocery store. It further allows you to create a sticky note on the page and direct your friends to your home for dinner.

One can borrow money on their own terms from Prosper.com. You do not need to know the lender personally. You just need to know who will offer the money at the best interest rate you can afford.

Someone developed a website called goowy.com. The idea was to make your desktop Global. All you need is an internet connection and a web browser on a computer. You don’t need to install the proprietary tools, don’t worry about the disk crashes. Everything you need on your desktop computer; Whiteboards, email client, word processors, etc. are available online.

One can grab a cup of coffee from the nearest starbucks before the time it takes for the necessary information in Google Earth to flow on my screen.

All these observations represent some good ideas and creative implementation, but have we tried using these apps/websites over a 15 kbps phone connection on a 5 year old computer with 128 MB RAM?

The above mentions are a glimpse of new and rich applications delivered to your home on a 512 MB RAMS 2 GHZ computer connected to high speed internet. This scenario is very common in developed countries as well as developing economies such as Brazil, India and Ukraine. An inference here is that technology is the main driver for these new trends.

Trevor Cook in the Social Media study says it all;

“The days of dial-up are fast coming to an end. Half of all internet connections in Australia are broadband and the number of new connections has jumped 80 per cent in the last 12 months.

Broadband brings with it the reality of an ‘always on’ web. That is, when your computer is working, so is your Internet connection. The ‘always on’ web is a key part of the emergence of Web 2.0, as are the falling costs of data storage.”

Web 2.0: Natural Evolution.

The advent of low-cost high-speed connectivity has provided common users with immense power to explore newer horizons. With increased awareness we are discovering newer ways of interacting, be it podcasts, wikis, blogs, RSS, emails, virtual desktops.

In a recent workshop I attended, the concept of strokes in context to human psychology was discussed in detail. We look for emotional strokes that acknowledge our presence, a need to reach out to others in the community around us and to be noticed. Whether it’s because of the interested looks you get while driving a Ferrari or the hug from a mother when a child feigns a headache.

How is it different from the encouraging comments on a blog about the latest image I uploaded to Flickr.com?

Many of us would be aware of SETI – Search for extraterrestrial intelligence. Many home users have signed up to be part of a SETI initiative. It would require us to have our home computers to be used for processing astronomical data collected by radio telescopes. The collective array of home desktops proposed by commoners simulates a giant computing brain.

But would we call it a collaboration? NO, in strict terms and certainly not a Web2.0 kind of community, but it is a community – a very large community born out of “common interest” and more importantly, the “need to innovate” – around limited resources.

SETI project, Myspace.com or Orkut.com do not offer commercial goods but have a collective user base of more than 40 Million. What these sites offer is an opportunity to interact and be part of a community, the inherent motivation of human sapiens.

Observations of the watchdogs and blog thought leaders, on web2.0 bubble mentioned in the beginning might be valid but they might represent one way of thinking. Let’s look at some more observations:

– Intel recently announced the launch of a suite of software that includes blogging, wiki and content syndication software. This move clearly indicates that Web 2.0 applications, most of which were originally developed to serve the consumer market, are increasingly adapted for use in organizations.

– Today businesses are launching corporate blogs and RSS feeds. Oracle plans to deploy a web2.0 platform to undertake the integration of the newly acquired products.

– More and more control is handed over to the users – the consumers to search and give feedback. American Express is experimenting with internal use of wikis. On its customer-facing website, it uses RSS, and the company’s website invites its customers to provide feedback to influence product design.

– Recently, University of Arizona added a web2.0 course in collaboration with IBM.

“The analysis firm Gartner Group predicts that by 2008, the majority of Global 1,000 companies will adopt technology-related aspects of Web 2.0 in their businesses.”

If we believe in democracy, we may as well argue, based on the above observations, that web2.0 is about awareness of how creatively we can consume the World Wide Web.

Web 2.0 should be seen as a concept, a paradigm shift to how we work, search, collaborate and do business less the plain old html. It came along the day it was born at the O’Reilly conference.

Web 2.0 can be taken as a conveniently spelled word that represents a paradigm shift. It could be iweb1.0 for interactivity or something else. What is the difference?

Emergence and application of new ideas, interaction and technology, a new generation of websites and a rich interface bring us closer to creating a virtual world as presented in the movie “The Matrix”. Some may simply disagree with the statement, but then we could imagine “google earth” when we used to use a paper-bound atlas and a pencil to mark places, and laptops were objects of desire, only seen in Hollywood movies.

Web2.0 is just a natural evolution of plain old html applications; triggered by progress in technology and web2.0 is here to stay.

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