How Often Do 2 Year Olds Go Through Growth Spurts Horse Racing Handicapping Tips For Choosing the Easiest Races to Handicap

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Horse Racing Handicapping Tips For Choosing the Easiest Races to Handicap

One of the keys to successful handicapping is knowing which races to handicap and which races to pass. With all the simulcasts being done now, there’s no reason to play limited handicap races just because you want some action or feel like you’re missing out.

As many people find as they gain life experience, picking your battles is half the battle. That being said, which races should you play and which races should you pass?

That depends on why you race. Are you doing it for the challenge or to make money? The larger the field and the more senders and distance switches and surface switches you add to the plant, the more variables there are to compare and consider.

So if you were to start looking for easier races, I’d say limit the field size to a maximum of 7 horses. You might think that the more horses in the race, the better the payouts, and to a certain extent that’s right, but you’ll also find that the difficulty factor increases exponentially as each horse is added. My personal experience is that shorter fields are better for two reasons…

1. I spend less time per race so I can handicap more races and possibly find one great bet.

2. The more horses there are, the more likely traffic problems are, which can usually be a handicap, but can cause your great bet to fail.

In large fields, horses often encounter boxes, block each other or bump into each other. They can also be swept wide on a turn, so they have to cover a lot more ground. It’s just not worth it. It’s hard enough to pick a winner.

Another issue I mentioned above is how to compare horses that change conditions in some way. Turf on clay, or dirt in all weathers, there are several problems. If you have a horse that is trying the surface for the first time, it is an unknown. It may improve or decline or its performance may not change, but you won’t know without previous experience. Sire stats can help but are not as reliable. The more horses change surfaces, the bigger the problem.

For every situation the horse encounters for the first time, you have to put a question mark over the race. It is nothing more than betting on the first race with first-timers. You are trying to estimate the value of an unknown quantity. It’s impossible.

So here is what I look for in a race to make it playable…

I like to announce races because you know what the owner is willing to risk the horse for. The claim box is a great equalizer. Second, I don’t like betting on two-year-olds or three-year-olds at the start of the year. They are always changing and growing, so they may go through a growth spurt or some other hormonal or physical change between races. At the beginning of the year I like 4 year olds or older and later in the year I will finally consider a 3 year old, but never a 2 year old.

I like a field of 7 horses or less and out of those 7 horses I don’t want more than one horse changing distance or surface unless he has done so before and I can see how well he has run in those conditions. It might sound a little stiff, but you’ll still find plenty of races to bet on in these conditions, and it’ll be much easier for you to put them at a disadvantage. When handicapping horse racing for money, don’t bite off more than you can chew and be realistic about your ability and the ability of the horse to throw you a curve or two.

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