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Gab Session – The Maddest Of Marches
How great will this NCAA men’s college basketball tournament be?
I mean, sure, the George Mason thing was awesome last year, and let’s not forget that Wichita St. and Bradley reached the Sweet 16, LSU shocked Duke, Kansas lost in the first round for the second year in a row, #14 seed (Northwestern St.) shocked #3 (Iowa) and #2 Tennessee needed a buzzer beater to avoid a loss to # 15 by Winthrop.
Heck, we might not even have as many upsets this year, and I can practically guarantee that no one in the Colonial Athletic Association will make it to the Final Four. However, a combination of factors will combine to make this one of the most difficult years to fill your office. Here’s why:
Freshmen! Over the past decade, guys like Greg Oden and Kevin Durant would have jumped right into the NBA, but now they play at least a year in college. This brings some big surprises. Who would have thought Texas would even make the tournament this year after losing all five starters from the Elite Eight, let alone be a threat to go deep?
Underclassmen who leave. And even if that’s all well and good, you still have a lot less quality depth at traditional powerhouses because their studs don’t stick around for four years. This is a great equalizer: LaMarcus Aldridge (Texas, #2 in ’06 NBA draft), Tyrus Thomas (LSU, #4), Rudy Gay (UConn, #7), Patrick O’Bryant (Bradley, #9), Ronnie Brewer (Arkansas, #14), Cedric Simmons (NC State, #15), Shawne Williams (Memphis, #17), Quincy Douby (Rutgers, #19), Renaldo Balkman (South Carolina, #20), Rajon Rondo (Kentucky , #21), Marcus Williams (UConn, #22), Josh Boone (UConn, #23), Kyle Lowry (Villanova, #24), Shannon Brown (Michigan St., #25) and Jordan Farmar (UCLA, #26 ) . All of these kids left before their fourth year was up, as we can expect Oden, Durant and others to do after 2007. This kind of continued talent drain culture brings the little guy closer to the big guy.
Promotion for “Non-Traditional” schools. Fewer and fewer teams are dazzled by the national television spotlight of playing in the Big Dance. There are more pubs at the Missouri Valley Conference than Britney’s underground these days (okay, okay, it’s close), so there’s really nothing “middling” about the MVC. Winthrop beat Mississippi St., Old Dominion and Missouri St. on the road this year. and scared North Carolina, Maryland, Wisconsin and Texas A&M (their only four losses). They may not win their first round match but they are sure not to fear their opponent.
Who is the best seed? Nobody seems to want to be number one this year. A month ago it was easy: North Carolina, Florida, UCLA and Wisconsin. Then each of those schools started losing. UCLA was just bounced out of the first round of the Pac-10 tournament. Carolina has lost three of its last six regular season games. Florida has lost three of its last five. Wisconsin has lost two of its last three. Now Ohio St. the best team in the country, but they are young. Does anyone really expect them to keep it together for six NCAA tournament games? Other options for No. 1 seeds: Kansas, Texas A&M, Georgetown, Memphis (ew). There is no flawless team in the group.
Either way, it should be an amazing March Madness run. No team is without mistakes and few are without chances.
Boy, the NFL never sleeps. What do you think have been some of the best acquisitions of the pro free agent season so far?
BoDog Bookmakers, BoDog.com : Two teams made a series of moves that made them the “co-winners” of early 2007 free agency. The New England Patriots shed their tag as a “thrifty” team and really made a splash in free agency. Adalius Thomas was arguably the most in-demand defensive player on the market, while Wes Welker has quietly become one of the most versatile PR/KR/WRs in the NFL. They also added value in backup RB Sammy Morris to offset the loss of Corey Dillon. The San Francisco 49ers have also done a lot to improve their woeful secondary, which ranked 26th against the pass a year ago. Nate Clements is a Pro-Bowl caliber DBM, while Michael Lewis is a solid if unspectacular upgrade at safety. On offense, the Niners added Ashley Lelie, another deep threat to work into QB Alex Smith’s offensive arsenal.
I’ll ask about some specific NCAA tournament matchups next week, but for now, can you give me your anticipated Final Four, brackets?
BDB, BoDog.com: Let’s defer to the Bodog oddsmakers on this one. Currently, the top four favorites to win the NCAA title are North Carolina (9/2), Florida (9/2), Ohio State (6/1) and Kansas (6/1).
And give us a few teams seeded 9th or worse that you think have the best chance to pull off a first-round upset?
BoDog Bookmakers, BoDog.com: Well, everyone was counting on Gonzaga when they lost Josh Heytvelt to suspension, but you can never forget the Zags when tournament time rolls around. After losing to a very tough Memphis team by a single point on February 17th, Gonzaga won its last five games to advance to the West Coast Conference tournament for the fourth straight season. Senior guard Derek Raivio put this team on his shoulders and so far it’s working. Also keep an eye on Syracuse if they get an offer. The Orange beat Georgetown on Feb. 26 and have won five of their last six games after struggling in late January.
Mavs or Suns? Suns or Mavs? I know Dallas was incredible during the regular season…do you see that carrying over to another trip to the NBA Finals? Does Phoenix have enough to pull it off this time? Can San Antonio sneak in there?
BoDog Bookmakers, BoDog.com : Teams that advance to the NBA Finals are rarely one-dimensional. Therefore, until Phoenix learns how to play defense or attack in the half court, they will have their doubters. Still, 9/4 to win it all have their fair share of believers too. San Antonio isn’t going to sneak up on anyone. Not with a roster that includes Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. The Spurs are 7/2 to reach the NBA Finals and 6/1 to win. That hardly represents flying under the radar. According to Bodog oddsmakers, however, the team with the best shot is the Dallas Mavericks. They are a complete team that can beat San Antonio with stifling defense and overwhelm Phoenix with a flurry of offense. The Mavs’ ability to play either style makes them a 1/1 favorite to return to the Finals and a 2/1 favorite to win the title.
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