How Old Is Jesus At The End Of Matthew 2 Interpreting Market Signs in the New Testament and Today

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Interpreting Market Signs in the New Testament and Today

“The housing market is coming back! Did you see the news last night? The Fed and Obama say the recession is over. There will be buyers of my house in no time!” (Charlotte Landlord)

“…When the evening comes, you say, ‘It will be fine weather, because the sky is red,’ and in the morning, ‘There will be a storm today, because the sky is red and cloudy.’ You know how to interpret the appearance of heaven, but you cannot interpret the signs of the times.” (Jesus Christ, recorded in Matthew 16:2-3)

In the Bible, one of the frequently asked questions of the disciples of Jesus was how they would know that the end of the world was coming and when he would return to rule the earth. Jesus did not back down from the question and gave them telling signs of what to expect. “You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but be careful not to be afraid. Such things must happen, but the end is yet to come. Nation will rise against nation and kingdom against kingdom. There will be famines and earthquakes in various places. All this is the beginning of births pain.” (Matthew 24:6-8)

Jesus Himself gave instructions on what signs to look for before His return, but what are the “signs” that financial experts say they should look for that will signal the return of the real estate market? They are all over the map! Who has the correct answer? Perhaps we need to look at the “sign of the times” for ourselves.

For starters, I don’t give any credence to the scattered messages from business owners saying “things seem to be picking up” and “Bob called me and said this was his busiest week selling horses that he can remember – Daggamit, I firmly believe them , that Bessie will have a new home this week too!” Stories make us feel good, but they are unreliable signs of an impending market rally. As my professor at UNC-Chapel Hill, Bob Adler, said, “The plural of anecdote is not data. They are anecdotes.”

The data I rely on is rooted in common sense; it’s similar to Warren Buffett’s mantra “invest in what you know” mixed with Occam’s razor “the simplest solution is usually the best”. The real estate market is in terrible shape due to banks not lending to people to buy houses. If there are no buyers, there can be no sellers. When will this stalemate end? Well, let’s look at the trends. The reality for banks over the next year or two will be that they will take less risk; this means more government regulation, higher down payment requirements, and higher credit score requirements (an upward trend). The reality for aspiring homebuyers is that they are riskier on paper with lower employment rates, lower credit scores and less money to put aside (a downward trend). These two trains have to meet for the market to come back, and right now they are on tracks going in different directions; as they move further apart, they create a large (and growing) gap in sales inactivity.

So when will the real estate market bounce back? Who knows? Personally, I would “read the signs” by taking advice from London Underground – “Mind the (widening) Gap!

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